nz-weathergram
Date: Sun, 1 Nov 2026 23:39:53 +1300
Subject: Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 01 November 2026
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines
For last month is at youtu.be/6j7UxmBp9a8
Several anticyclones entered the south Tasman then travelled northeast and
then faded into the subtropical ridge along 30S. This pattern repeated 1-9
Oct and 17 to 25 Oct . There continue to be several near equatorial lows ,
a facet of this El Nino. TC WATI opened the cyclone season 17-19 Oct, and
damaged Aitutaki.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
El Nino 's warmth in the eastern equatorial pacific continues, and that
cooler patch on its southwest side over Southwest pacific is bringing dry
conditions .
A time/longitude plot shows anomalies now getting over +4 degrees C This is
record breaking and has gone off the scale.
Average isobars for past month
In the northern hemisphere the Siberian anticyclone is well set heralding an
early winter there. The Tasman HIGH central pressure has weakened a little,
but its extent has spread south over NZ.
The anomaly pressure pattern hasn't changed much in the past month.
New Zealand Details
The 1010 isobar has shifted to south of NZ. There are more isobars closer
together south of the saddle point between NZ and Chile.
The SAM Southern Annualar Mode ( as shown using the AAO) was neutral in
October and forecast to be positive for much of November
See
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.gefs.spr
d2.png
TROPICS
. Super Cyclone Arnab struck India's Andhra Pradesh coast with winds near 80
mph, killing at least seven people while damaging homes and swamping
farmlands.
. Former Super Typhoon Champi drenched a wide area of Taiwan, Japan and
Korea after weakening from its earlier status as the strongest storm of the
year so far.
. Super Typhoon In-Fa formed near the Marshall Islands but remained far
from any significant land areas.
. Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical depression before soaking Mexico's
Sinaloa state.
. Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed briefly
WEATHER ZONES
L1 low south of Austral Island sis moving off to SE but generating a burst
of swell for them.
High H1 east of NZ tonight is expected to travel off to travel slowly east
to southeast. It has a squash zone of enhanced trade winds that may affect
Tahiti to Tonga.
A small trough is expected to produce some thundery showers SE of New
Caledonia on Monday and these then go off to the Se and fade away.
Low L2 is expected to enter the Tasman Sea from the west as a thundery
trough on Tuesday and then form on Wednesday. It should then travel
southeast and get east of South Island by Saturday.
HIGH H2 is expected to expand into Aussie Bight during the week
Outlook for Northland: a front around 9-10Nov then around 13-15Nov
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Subject: Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 01 November 2026
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines
For last month is at youtu.be/6j7UxmBp9a8
Several anticyclones entered the south Tasman then travelled northeast and
then faded into the subtropical ridge along 30S. This pattern repeated 1-9
Oct and 17 to 25 Oct . There continue to be several near equatorial lows ,
a facet of this El Nino. TC WATI opened the cyclone season 17-19 Oct, and
damaged Aitutaki.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
El Nino 's warmth in the eastern equatorial pacific continues, and that
cooler patch on its southwest side over Southwest pacific is bringing dry
conditions .
A time/longitude plot shows anomalies now getting over +4 degrees C This is
record breaking and has gone off the scale.
Average isobars for past month
In the northern hemisphere the Siberian anticyclone is well set heralding an
early winter there. The Tasman HIGH central pressure has weakened a little,
but its extent has spread south over NZ.
The anomaly pressure pattern hasn't changed much in the past month.
New Zealand Details
The 1010 isobar has shifted to south of NZ. There are more isobars closer
together south of the saddle point between NZ and Chile.
The SAM Southern Annualar Mode ( as shown using the AAO) was neutral in
October and forecast to be positive for much of November
See
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.gefs.spr
d2.png
TROPICS
. Super Cyclone Arnab struck India's Andhra Pradesh coast with winds near 80
mph, killing at least seven people while damaging homes and swamping
farmlands.
. Former Super Typhoon Champi drenched a wide area of Taiwan, Japan and
Korea after weakening from its earlier status as the strongest storm of the
year so far.
. Super Typhoon In-Fa formed near the Marshall Islands but remained far
from any significant land areas.
. Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical depression before soaking Mexico's
Sinaloa state.
. Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed briefly
WEATHER ZONES
L1 low south of Austral Island sis moving off to SE but generating a burst
of swell for them.
High H1 east of NZ tonight is expected to travel off to travel slowly east
to southeast. It has a squash zone of enhanced trade winds that may affect
Tahiti to Tonga.
A small trough is expected to produce some thundery showers SE of New
Caledonia on Monday and these then go off to the Se and fade away.
Low L2 is expected to enter the Tasman Sea from the west as a thundery
trough on Tuesday and then form on Wednesday. It should then travel
southeast and get east of South Island by Saturday.
HIGH H2 is expected to expand into Aussie Bight during the week
Outlook for Northland: a front around 9-10Nov then around 13-15Nov
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>