tpecforecast
Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2012 07:51:45 -0500
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
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There is a GALE WARNING for the Tehuantepec.
GALE WARNING
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N96W
INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS
9 TO 12 FT.
.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W N WINDS 20
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N96W
INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT.
48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS
WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N97W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE
DISCUSSION AREA. HIGHEST WINDS WERE REGISTERED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS ALONG 10N W OF
127W. DRAINAGE WIND FLOW TO 20 KT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN A SMALL
AREA OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW
OF THE AREA EXTENDS TO A 1004 MB LOW NNW OF HAWAII NEAR 30N153W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS A 992 MB LOW LATE
TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 10M WINDS 30-35 KT
IN AREA N OF 26N W OF 136W IN THE 18-30 HOUR TIME FRAME. BUMPED
FCST WINDS HIGHER AND ISSUED GALE WARNING IN RESPONSE TO MODEL
FORECAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 30N SUN...BUT NEAR GALE
25-33 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT SOUTH
OF THE GALE CENTER THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE GALE
FORCE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...
USUAL AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS WITHIN 5 DEG LATITUDE OF 10N
W OF 125W WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 13-17, Seas S 3-4 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - N 30-35, Seas N 4-7 feet @ 10sec
SUNDAY - N 35-40, Seas N 8-12 feet @ 8sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - N 35-40, Seas N 8-12 feet @ 5sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
MONDAY - N 35-40, Seas N 8-12 feet @ 5sec
TUESDAY - N 25-30, Seas N 6-9 feet @ 5sec
WEDNESDAY - N 10-15, Seas mixed N and SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - SW 9-13, Seas SW 2-3 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - N 25-30, Seas N 5-8 feet @ 10sec